Though not about superheroes, two mighty movie franchises are duking it out again for screen domination.
The latest Adobe Digital Index (ADI) analysis, “Holiday Movie Insights—Fall 2014,” suggests that social marketing is, indeed, becoming a key driver of a movie’s success. Social buzz for “The Hunger Games: Mocking Jay Part 1” is beating “The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies” for supremacy this winter, with twice as many daily mentions and two times more total buzz since June than “The Hobbit.”
“The Hunger Games” also has a higher share of international geotagged buzz than “The Hobbit.”
The reason “The Hunger Games” is in the lead, according to Tamara Gaffney, principal analyst at ADI, is that Katniss and crew have more Facebook page likes, YouTube trailer views, and Twitter followers than does “The Hobbit.”
“Last year it was a face-off between ‘The Hobbit’ and ‘The Hunger Games,’ as well,” Gaffney explained. “And while last year ‘The Hobbit’ was in the lead for social buzz, it seems that this year ‘The Hunger Games’ has ramped up its social marketing. ‘The Hunger Games’ is doing a better job of leveraging social media, and that is why we expect a different winner this holiday season.”
According to ADI, both films have nearly identical social sentiment, with 66% of buzz relating to joy, admiration, or surprise. “Both will be huge global winners, but the buzz of ‘The Hunger Games’ will help it edge out the ‘The Hobbit’ this holiday season,” said Joe Martin, an analyst at ADI.
ADI’s analysis is based on 12 million social mentions related to movies captured by Adobe Social from blogs, Facebook, Google+, Reddit, Twitter, Dailymotion, Flickr, Instagram, Tumblr, VK, Disqus, Foursquare, Metacafe, WordPress, and YouTube.
ADI predicts “The Hunger Games,” “The Hobbit,” and “Dumb and Dumber To” will be domestically profitable, with the “Imitation Game” coming in as the surprise hit. Early social buzz shows each of these movies averaged more than 15% day-over-day growth of buzz since June 2014.
On the other hand, ADI says that “Exodus Gods” and “Kings” will be less profitable, if at all. Social buzz has been low, but with over a month until release, there still may be time to ramp up the social conversation.
“Social media marketing is starting to really make a tangible impact,” Gaffney said. “And the measurement of social media has been correct in predicting outcomes.”
About Adobe Digital Insights
Adobe Digital Insights publishes research on digital marketing and other topics of interest to senior marketing and e-commerce executives across industries. Research is based on the analysis of select, anonymous, and aggregated data from more than 5,000 companies worldwide that use the Adobe Digital Marketing Cloud to obtain real-time data and analysis of activity on websites, social media, and advertising.
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