If after watching 20 minutes of trailers the last time you went to the movies you thought “The Fault in Our Stars” looked like it might be worth seeing but “Edge of Tomorrow” was already off your list, you’re not alone.
According to recent Adobe Digital Index (ADI) analysis of summer movie “social buzz”—which has been known to accurately predict how well films will perform upon release—“Stars” is a winner, while “Edge” is a loser. ADI used Adobe Social to monitor 11.7 million social mentions from March 1 to May 17 of this year. (Note: Adobe is CMO.com’s parent company.)
ADI looked at the social buzz around nine blockbuster-style movies set to open this summer: “Edge of Tomorrow,” “Jupiter Ascending,” “Hercules,” “Expendables 3,” “The Fault in Our Stars,” “Guardians of the Galaxy,” “Transformers 4,” “The Purge 2,” and “How To Train Your Dragon 2.” The buzz data around these movies is based on 11.7 million social mentions from March 1 to May 17 of this year.
According to ADI, “The Fault in our Stars,” “Guardians of the Galaxy,” “Transformers 4,” “The Purge 2,” and, somewhat surprisingly, “How To Train Your Dragon 2” will be the season’s blockbuster hits.
This isn’t the first time ADI is forecasting the profitability of movies before they are released. Last year during the holiday season, ADI predicted “Thor: The Dark World” and “The Hunger Games: Catching Fire” would be profitable, while “Ender’s Game” and “Delivery Man” would not; social buzz proved to be right. Profitability was sourced through Box Office Mojo.
“This is the third time we’ve predicted movie success based on social buzz,” said Joe Martin, an analyst with ADI, “and we've pretty much determined that these movies will be profitable because they have shown consistent day-over-day and week-over-week social buzz. The films with considerably less buzz will, we believe, be less successful.”
According to ADI, “Edge of Tomorrow,” “Hercules,” and “Expendables 3” are, unfortunately, not going to be moneymakers for their producers. “Jupiter Ascending” was also among the movies that is trending unprofitable, but its release date was just pushed out from July to February 2015—perhaps as a reaction to the social sphere’s cold reception.
ADI notes that the movies that are predicted to be profitable have 2.2x more YouTube trailer views on average than those that are predicted not to be profitable. Additionally, the five movies predicted to be profitable already have 3x more day-over-day growth of buzz, on average, and nearly 5x more week-over-week growth of buzz, on average, than the movies predicted as not profitable. What’s more, average daily social buzz from predicted profitable movies is nearly 18x higher than predicted not-profitable movies.
“Not enough businesses are using social media data to drive their strategy,” according to Tamara Gaffney, principal analyst with ADI. “We are nine for nine in predicting movie profitability based on social buzz. Think of the implications for businesses that use social buzz to predict product launch success, create new offerings, or quantify marketing program impact. There is a huge opportunity for savvy marketers to use this data as a competitive weapon.”
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Adobe Digital Insights publishes research on digital marketing and other topics of interest to senior marketing and e-commerce executives across industries. Research is based on the analysis of select, anonymous, and aggregated data from more than 5,000 companies worldwide that use the Adobe Digital Marketing Cloud to obtain real-time data and analysis of activity on websites, social media, and advertising.
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