With the 87th Academy Awards—the Oscars—taking place this Sunday, Feb. 22, savvy marketers are busily preparing creative assets to capitalize on as many possible outcomes as they can. One way to do this, according to the cast and crew at Adobe Digital Index (ADI), is to tune into the social buzz leading up to the event. Doing so, they believe, can help marketers better prepare their real-time marketing strategies—and even optimize them—for when the awards are presented.
“Our social buzz analysis around the Oscar social chatter doesn’t tell us who will win an Academy Award,” said Tamara Gaffney, principal at ADI, “but it does tell us how fans might react to certain outcomes.”
According to ADI, Bradley Cooper is seeing the most Oscar-related social buzz of all the Best Actor nominees for his performance in “American Sniper.”
According to Gaffney, Cooper’s buzz ranking indicates that people will be extremely happy if he wins and very disappointed should he lose. “Brands could use this knowledge and capitalize on not only the outcome, but also how people feel about it,” Gaffney told CMO.com.
She offered this hypothetical scenario: If Cooper loses and you are, say, a beer brand, you could tweet out a coupon saying, “Bummed about Bradley Cooper losing? Have a beer on us.”
“Brands need to be looking at social chatter leading up to an event to better understand how people might react to surprise outcomes,” Gaffney said. “Based on this insight, marketers can then prepare creative in advance, so it looks real-time, even though technically it is not.”
ADI also found that social buzz differs based on location. Americans love “American Sniper” (71%), “Selma” (70%), and “Boyhood” (55%); beyond the U.S., “The Theory of Everything” (75%), “The Imitation Game” (69%), and “The Grand Budapest Hotel” (60%) rank at top. Within the U.S., Texans love “American Sniper” (11%), Californians love “The Imitation Game” (19%) and “Boyhood” (19%), and New Yorkers love “Selma” (15%).
“The different preferences based on location are a golden ticket for marketers that want to optimize messaging based on where consumers are,” Gaffney said. “It makes total sense for a brand to target New Yorkers with victory messages should ‘Selma’ win, and Texans if ‘American Sniper’ takes home an Oscar for Best Film.”
ADI’s report is based on 3 million-plus publicly available social media mentions related directly to the Oscars from blogs, Facebook, G+, Reddit, Twitter, Dailymotion, Flickr, Instagram, Tumblr, VK, Disqus, Foursquare, Metacafe, Wordpress, and YouTube from Jan. 15, when nominees were announced, through Feb. 16. The data was captured through Adobe Social.
Another interesting tidbit for marketers: ADI has found that with lack of diversity in nominations, 65% of Oscar social buzz is negative.
On a brighter note, the Best Picture category has three times more mentions this year than last year, likely due to all of the controversy around “American Sniper.”
And because of lower-wattage star power than last year—i.e., no Leonardo DiCaprio or Matthew McConaughey—the Best Actor category, this year, has four times fewer mentions than it did in 2014. Supporting Actor (5.4 times) and Supporting Actress (2.7 times) showed similar declines, according to ADI.
Julianne Moore is in the lead with most social buzz for the Best Actress nod; she also leads in buzz growth since the nominations have been announced. The takeaway for marketers? People love Moore, so expect a lot of disappointment if she does not win. “Plan accordingly,” said Gaffney, “if this fits into your strategy.”
According to ADI, in the Best Supporting Actor category, Robert Duvall led in social buzz on announcement day, but J.K Simmons surpassed Duvall and now leads for both buzz and buzz growth. Simmons saw 7.3-times cumulative buzz growth compared with announcement day.
Among Best Supporting Actress nominees, Meryl Streep has a slight lead over Emma Stone for total buzz, while Patricia Arquette leads for cumulative buzz growth. Patricia Arquette’s cumulative buzz growth is up nearly five times since announcement day.
In the Best Director category, Wes Anderson leads for buzz and Richard Linkleter and Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu lead for cumulative buzz growth. Gonzalez Inarritu has more than five times more buzz than he did on announcement day.
“I think the key takeaway for marketers is, you don’t have to go into these types of events blind,” Gaffney said. “Social buzz can help guide you on how people feel about events, who they are rooting for, and how you—as a marketer—should position your messaging.”
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About Adobe Digital Index
Adobe Digital Index publishes research on digital marketing and other topics of interest to senior marketing and e-commerce executives across industries. Research is based on the analysis of select, anonymous, and aggregated data from over 5,000 companies worldwide that use the Adobe Digital
Marketing Cloud to obtain real-time data and analysis of activity on websites, social media, and advertising.
About Adobe Digital Insights
Adobe Digital Insights publishes research on digital marketing and other topics of interest to senior marketing and e-commerce executives across industries. Research is based on the analysis of select, anonymous, and aggregated data from more than 5,000 companies worldwide that use the Adobe Digital Marketing Cloud to obtain real-time data and analysis of activity on websites, social media, and advertising.
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