Brand marketers considering movie sponsorships for this summer and beyond should not assume a movie will do well based on the social clout of the stars, according to new analysis from Adobe Digital Index (ADI). Instead, ADI suggests, brand marketers should use social buzz for the movie itself as an indicator of success or failure.
“If you’re considering marketing along with a movie—which is something a lot of brands, such as McDonald’s, do—social buzz can help decide which movie to tag along with,” said Tamara Gaffney, principal analyst at ADI. “‘Ant-Man’ is the poster child for movies that you wouldn’t expect to be popular, and yet it is.” At least according to the buzz.
Social buzz data collected from blogs, Facebook, Google+, Reddit, Twitter, Dailymotion, Flickr, Instagram, Tumblr, VK, Disqus, Foursquare, Metacafe, Wordpress, and YouTube indicates that “Minions,” “Pitch Perfect 2,” “Jurassic World,” “Ant-Man,” “Avengers,” and “Mad Max Fury Road” will be this summer’s profitable blockbusters. ADI’s social buzz model has correctly predicted the success and failure of 24 out of 24 movies since 2013.
On the flip side, ADI predicts that “San Andreas,” “Hitman Agent 47,” “Hot Pursuit,” and “Aloha” are trending towards being domestically unprofitable, while titles such as “Terminator Genisys,” and “The Man From U.N.C.L.E, will be on the fringe.
“What’s interesting is that ‘San Andreas,’ for example, stars the Rock, who has more than 8.7 million followers on Twitter alone and is actively pushing the movie,” said Joe Martin, an analyst with ADI. “Marketers shouldn’t rely just on the social presence of actors as an indicator of whether or not a movie will do well, but should look at the whole social presence that the movie itself has created. ”
According to ADI, movies predicted to be profitable are seeing 7x more YouTube trailer views than the motion pictures predicted unprofitable. Additionally, movies predicted profitable average 55x more Twitter followers than those predicted unprofitable, and 53x more Facebook page likes. Overall, movies predicted profitable by ADI average 9x more daily mentions than movies that are predicted not profitable.
“Social buzz can be indicative of whether a marketer’s sponsorship of a movie will be beneficial for the company,” Gaffney said.
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